INVEST IN PRODUCTS & SERVICES

Even our feeble-minded caveman ancestors were clever enough to limit their investments to well-understood tools... like a club or stone axe-- and seldom ventured very far beyond unfamiliar territory to avoid unfamiliar predators. You too should be wise to the advantages of investing only in companies whose products and services you understand and in markets you are intimately familiar with.

Quite often, we regionalize our investments. We think we know and understand the local industry and the company where we work. Investors from Arkansas invest in Wal-Mart. Californians buy Silicon Valley stocks. Seattle residents feel comfortable with Microsoft, Boeing or Starbucks; Texans invest in the oil industry. New Yorkers feel they know the media and advertising industry. What is amazing is the number of Asian investors who seek out all these USA stocks on the other side of the planet!

However, you don't want to invest in auto manufacturers just because you drive a car or because you live in Detroit (or Thailand and China where many auto parts are manufactured today). Nor should Floridians buy Disney or orange juice makers, or Singaporeans buy Singapore Airlines just because they fly to Hong Kong once a year. It's more than just knowing something about the company that you're investing in and the products those companies make or the services those companies provide. You also need to know that the stock you're buying is an excellent value and that the company is part of a growing industry.

A good test is to ask yourself if you could explain your investments to a ten-year-old. That may help you determine whether or not you really know what you own.

The wild swings in share prices are really your friend. Be careful of groupthink that is so prevalent in the stock market. Warren often quote his teacher Ben Graham as saying, 'You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd agrees or disagrees with you. You are right if your principles, research, date, future projections, and reasoning are right.'

The major university head librarian who said about Buffett, 'You know, Warren is a great future investor,' meant that he is able to predict the future stream of earnings of a business and industry and buy it at a discount to its real value for the long term.

All investors must look into the future. In 1979 in Forbes magazine, Warren said, 'The future is never clear. You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery concensus. Uncertainty is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.' Buying when everyone is selling and selling when everyone is buying is the old adage on how to make money in the stock market, but that's easier said than done. However, if you know what you own and understand why it is such an excellent value, then you position yourself to take natural advantage of the adage.

Learning to understand what you own is a matter of learning to ask the right questions of the right people. Remember the story of the fellow standing next to a dog and a stranger approached and asked, 'Does your dog bite?' The fellow said, 'No,' so the stranger reached down and petted the dog and the dog bit him! Alarmed, the stranger said, 'I thought you said your dog doesn't bite.' The man said, 'Well, that's not my dog.' The moral of the story is to know to ask the right questions to the right people in order to truly understand.

Berkshire's largest investment of a partly owned business or stock is Coca-Cola, and it provides an excellent example of knowing what you own. As a young lad Buffett sold bottles of Coke door to door in his neighborhood, and as a teenager he was in the vending machine business with his pinball machines, but he didn't rely entirely on these early experiences to understand his billion-dollar investment.

For all of his early years and most of his adult life, Warren drank Pepsi-Cola, some say even that at one time if you cut his vein, Pepsi would come out instead of blood. So he personally understood the competition.

Next he read everything he could about The Coca-Cola Company: how it was founded, grew, and expanded, and its market share, international expansion, and management. Like GEICO thirty-five years earlier, Buffett could have written an extensive stock analyst's report of the security he likes best: Coca-Cola. After careful and thorough reading and research, he noted that Coke's management was buying back its own shares. The last thing he wanted to do was tip his hat and let management know he was interested in buying. So he quitely purchased $1 billion of the stock.

Like the average investor, Warren had no exclusive or insider information. Unlike the average investor, he studied and understood what he was buying. The soft-drink beverage business is not a very difficult business to know. Figuring out when it is selling at an excellent value compared to its future earnings is the genius part.

Coca-Cola earned 42 cents per share in 1989, so Berkshire paid 15.5 times what it was then earning with an average price of $6.50. Book value was $1.18 per share, so it paid 5.5 times book. Buffett was paid back with actual net earnings in 9 years, nearly one half of the projected earnings payback time. Meanwhile, book value has quadrupled, the stock price has climbed 7-times, Coke earns 3-times more than when it was first purchased, and management continues to buy back its shares (10% since Buffett's purchase), which gives the shareholders in essence a nontax dividend making the remaining 90% of shares more valuable.

Today Coke sells over 1 billion servings (out of a total of 50 billion) a day and continues to enjoy worldwide leadership of the soft-drink beverage industry. So with just 2% of the world market, Coke has enormous growth opportunities ahead.

This type of analysis is all very easy to do in hindsight and over a decade later. The difficulty is being able to see the wonderful investment opportunity in advance, which is what makes Warren Buffett's talent so profound.

Notice how patient Buffett is and hos thoroughly he understands what he is doing. A half-century after he was selling Coke door to door and more than a century after it was first formulated, he made a substantial purchase.

The husband of famed author and mystery writer Agatha Cristie was an archaeologist. 'That was the best occupation for a husband,' said Agatha, 'because the older things get, the more interested he becomes.' Warren invests like an archaeologist-- the older things become, the more interested he is.

Sage@wallstraits.com


Credits: Much of this article (with modifications) is extracted from Ch. 5 of Warren Buffett Wealth by Robert Miles, 2004.

Article excerpted from http://articles.wallstraits.net/articles/1358

House Ownership Important to The Poor ?

Let presume you are the lower range of the age target 35. Payment of $200 per month from your monthly $1000. That's already 20% of your income provided it is already disposable income. Poor people I know of dun even earn that $1000 disposable income. Govt building 2 room flats and wants poor people ownership would not work. That would only provide an "incentive" to sink them into greater debt. Does the government guarantee that the poor fellow will be employed for the next 20 years till he is 55 years old while earning that $1000. Any hiccups in the economy, that poor fellow bears the brute force. I would rather that the government "teach" the way how to fish than providing them the easy bait. The focus on job re-creation is excellent, works for them and contributes to the economy, and the focus should still be this. Maybe we Singaporeans should move with the global trend to rent apartments to rent houses rather than actual flat ownership. Renting houses frees up more disposable income than having assests frozen in living houses. He cannot sell because he lives in it. He cannot benefit from the sale, he does not know how. That poor fellow is not going to benefit much from living in that house, coping with day to day living is already hard enough assuming he/she has no kids. My recommendation is that government builds these new 2 room flats and then rent out these flat at a subsidized rate. Help the poor achieve better cashflow while creating more substainable jobs for them which they are already doing. Educate the children borned in a poor family free of their limiting beliefs. Instill correct working attitudes and inspire them to get out of the poverty circle. Education dont come cheap here in Singapore so do public transport. With more disposable income, they can provide more for their kids with additional help of bursaries from the govt.

I will help the poor when I get more successful, but in a way that really helps them in a real substainable way. 取之社会， 用之社会. I really hate to see talents go to waste because they are "handicapped" not physically or mentally but in money terms. Money is always printed in the mint, but life is finite and God given.


Enjoy today.



Cheers
Niversphere.

News Excerpted from CNA
Government to start building 2-room flats before year-end
By Asha Popatlal, Channel NewsAsia


The government will start building new 2-room flats before the end of the year.

It is currently assessing what the demand is likely to be and where to build these flats.

National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan, speaking to reporters after a community event on Saturday, said certain criteria would however apply to interested buyers.

These include an income ceiling so that lower-income families will not have to compete with others to get these 2-room flats.

After all, Mr Mah said, the idea of such grants is for this group to be able to afford their first home as soon as possible and to have assets when they retire.

Another criteria will be that at least one member of the household must have worked over the last 2 years in line with the philosophy of workfare.

Mr Mah said: "There will be demand from 2 categories of people. Those who are downgrading - elderly, lower income who may not meet repayments and may want to down size. The second category are the low income and anyone who may not be able to afford larger flats. Two-room flats are a good way for them to get started and own their first flat and as salary increases, as their children start working, they can upgrade."

Mr Mah also told reporters that the government is also looking at releasing a piece of land on a short 30-year lease basis that could ideally be used to build a retirement village, although its ultimate use will be up to private developers. - CNA/ch


News Excerpted from CNA
Lower-income workers welcome housing grants for flat purchases
By Hasnita A Majid, Channel NewsAsia


Low income-earners have welcomed the measures announced in the Budget on Friday to help first-timers buy their own flats.

They can receive a housing grant of up to twenty thousand dollars.

Property agents say that the measure will certainly help this group get affordable housing.

41-year-old Arivuazahagan and his family have been living in a one-room rental flat for the past 19 years.

Although he pays slightly more than S$40 to rent the flat every month, he wants to buy his own place.

But the sole breadwinner of the family who earns less than S$1,500 a month as a security guard has been waiting for his elder son to complete his national service before he buys a flat.

He said: "I am only waiting my sons to be stable. When they finish NS, they can work and get some money so my CPF can buy house. If I want to buy house, at least 2 to 3 persons work then it is comfortable."

With the new housing grant that the government has announced, Mr Arivuazahagan will stand to receive up to S$60,000 - the maximum grant of S$20,000 as he's earning below S$1,500 a month - and another S$40,000 if he's buying a resale flat near his parents.

And he is already looking forward to a three-room flat so that his sons can each have a room of their own.

A better option for him, say property agents, is to buy a new two-room flat that the government is planning to build.

Chris Koh, Director, Dennis Wee Properties, said: "First a 2-room flat I foresee HDB will price it at about S$70,000. With a S$20,000 grant added on, means effectively I pay about S$50,000 for that flat so S$50,000 if I were to divide it again, maybe over a 20-year loan and that will result in an instalment of about S$200. It's definitely payable because with a S$1000 salary, assuming that we are talking about the age group of 35-45 with a contribution of 20-30 percent to the CPF account, then I'll have sufficient instalments so that may be a better option for someone with lower income."
Alternatively, Mr Arivuazagahan could also consider a 2-room resale flat that's available in the market to get maximum benefits from the grants.

Under current regulations, first-time buyers of resale flats are eligible for the grant of $30,000 or $40,000 if the resale flat is near his or her parents.

The grants are not eligible for new flats.

There are currently 6,294 two-room flats that are currently owned by Singaporeans, with another 23,057 rented out in the market.

Mr Koh said: "Two-room flats are very popular. In fact not a lot of people want to sell them. The people who own them are of a higher age group. In fact when there's a flat to sell, we get a lot of calls from retirees. Retirees who downgrade, pay the flat fully and not have any loans. You do see people in two-room flats in areas like Bedok and they are very sought after. You don't see them coming up for sale so often but when they are up for sale, we get a flood of calls for that flat. It's quite easy to sell because there's demand for it."

Property agents suggest that the government should look into allowing the new housing grant to be used to pay the monthly instalment of their flats and not just as down payment.

Mohamed Ismail, CEO, Propnex, said: "For the existing grant of $30,000 to $40,000, the current requirement here is that one has to utilise towards all the down payment. Leaving it in the CPF to pay towards the instalment will definitely help the lower income, especially one who's earning below $1,000."

"He does not want to be burdened by the monthly commitment and if this top up can be used towards the monthly instalment, then it will again free him from other commitments or whatever costs of living that one has to take care of."

The new initiative to help low wage earners buy their own flat is expected to benefit some 6,000 households per year.

It is part of the government's aim to help up to 90 percent of Singaporeans to own their homes. - CNA/ch

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People - Stephen Covey

Habit 1: Be Proactive

This means more than just taking the initiative. It means taking responsibilty; our behaviour is a function of our decisions. All of us have a wide range of concerns -- our work, our health, our children, the national debt, nuclear war, whatever they may be. If you put them inside a circle you could call it your "circle of concern". Within that circle, there are some things over which you have no control. But there are otheres you can do something about. The latter group you can call your "circle of influence". Being proactive means widening your circle of influence working on the concerns you can do something about.


Habit 2: Begin With The End In Mind

This is based on the principle that "all things are created twice" : first in the mind, and then in reality. Before you can construct a house, You have a clear image of what you want to build. Before you go on a trip, you determine your destination and plan the best route. Before you give a speech, you create it in your mind or on a paper.


Habit 3: Put First Things First

This is the fufilment of Habits 1 and 2.


Habit 4: Think Win-Win

Seek to promote mutual benefit in your interactions. It's a superior outcome to win/lose("I get my way, you don't get yours) or lose/win ("I lose, you win") or lose/lose("when two determined stubborn, ego-invested individuals interact") or just "win" ("its irrelevant if anyone loses as long as I get what I want.") In some situations(like a football match) a desire to win/lose is appropriate. However, most situations involve interdependance and win/win is the only viable option.


Habit 5: Seek First To Understand, Then Be Understood.

The first part of this habit involves "empathic listening" the highest form of listening, in which you listen with the other person's frame of reference, rather than your own. This provides you, as a listener, the most accurate data to enable true understanding. Only then can you focus on influencing or problem solving. It;s like a doctor diagnosing accurately before prescribing. The second part of Habit 5 -- "be understood" involves presenting your own ideas clearly, specifically, visually, and contextually, thereby enhancing their credibility.


Habit 6: Synergise

The essence here is to constantly try to seek alternatives, which were not there before through creative cooperation. Two pieces of wood together can hold much more than the total of the weight each can hold seperately. You can achieve synergy by communicating synergistically and opening yourself to new possibilities and options. The key to achieving synergy lies in valuing the mental,emotional and psychological differences between people and recognising that people see the world not as it is, but as they are.


Habit 7: Sharpen The Saw

Ensure that you preserve, enhance and constantly renew your own personal assets -- physical, social/emotional, mental and spiritual -- which makes it possible for you to practise the first six habits.



The Eighth Habit: Find Your Voice And Inspire Others To Find Theirs
This enables you to reach beyond effectiveness, to greatness. Whereas the seven habits have more to do with success, the eighth has more to do with significance, whereby you make a difference. You start with yourself by unlocking your "birth-gifts" your talents, capacibilities and opportunities. Then you inspire others by communicating to them their worth and potential so clearly that they are able to see it themselves.

Hongguo :: Another view from female customers

Complaint links by female Customers on Daphne shoes' poor quality.

Woman have take their complaints another level. Online. Hahaha ... Just joking or was I ?

1. http://www.315ok.com/sview_mod.php?vclass=%BD%FC%C6%DA%CD%B6%CB%DF&id=8645&s=%D0%AC
2. http://www.66163.com/315/ty_view_mod.php?id=15
3. http://www.bj315.org/leavword/readbbs.asp?SubjectId=2299&Id=4012
4. http://club.women.sohu.com/read-fashion-532414-0-40.html

Cheers
Niversphere

Fed Chief - Ben S.Bernanke

As I was watching CNBC on the new Federal Reserve Chief, Bernanke LIVE at Capitol Hill. One of the policy makers mentioned that Bernanke was a teacher before.

*Ding* ... Guess what I found on my book collection.







All of a sudden, this adds to the cool factor for this book. A book co-written by the new Federal Reserve Chief, Ben S.Bernanke.




Cheers
Niversphere.

时势造英雄 Crisis makes a man

Rarely would anyone wants to break out of their comfort zones, some are willing and some are forced to make the break.

Crisis makes a man from the Chinese proverb "时势造英雄". Break out of the comfort cocoon that we build around us and set the inner beautiful soul free. I always try to see "uncomfortable" changes of event in my life as an opportunity to do things differently.

I feel strongly that I have an inner calling in me to amass a fortune through doing business or investments and help others in need with my finite life. It is this uncomfortable feeling struggling and this urge that made me stepped into finance from an IT background. My next life target is from owning businesses through investments ( Warren Buffett) to creating businesses.


"工字不出头” often people say but never take any actions. Dreams are just illusions without taking actions. I am taking small but forward steps towards my goal. With wealth, I can help others in need in more other ways.


Here is an intersting article I read from the Straits Times that I would like to share with my readers.


Cheers
Niversphere.


Original article from Straits Times by Tschang Chi Chu

China's second richest man built his billion-dollar fortune during China's construction boom in the late 1990s. Yan Jiehe bought over bankrupt state-owned companies and used modern management methods to turn them around. Now, he plans to give it back to his workers.

You could say that China's second richest man, Mr Yan Jiehe, would not have been today if not for the birth of his son.

The birth of the boy violated the one-child policy, which decreed that each family could have only one child to curb the country's population growth.

Faced with the penalty of being sacked, Mr Yan, who was a teacher, decided to quit instead. He was 26.

Mr Yan recalled his decision with a smile: "My son broke my rice bowl. If I hadn't had one more child. I could have enjoyed the carefree lifestyle of a teacher or principal."

So, instead of leading a bookish life he went into the rough-and tumble business of construction and succeeded in building his Nanjing-based company, China Pacific Construction Group, into one of the top construction companies in China worth more than 10 billion yuan($2 billion). Mr Yan is the largest shareholder in the company and is worth US$1.5 billion(S$2.4 billion) himself.

Not that the path to the top was smooth. When he quit his teaching job, Mr Yan knew little of the business world. He was the youngest of nine children and his parents were also school teachers. He was more comfortable reading the Chinese classics than doing things with his hands.

But he had a family to feed and he became a labourer to put food on the table. Being poor, he and his friends came up with a rather dangerous way of building up strength in their legs: they jumped off buildings.

"No one could beat me at jumping off buildings. We would start from the second floor and jump off. Then jump from the third floor. Then the fourth floor. All the way up to the fifth floor."

His big break came when a bankrupt cement company held a competition to get fresh ideas to save the company.

Mr Yan, who was the youngest and least experienced candidate beat out six rivals by receiving the highest score for a proposal to restructure the company.

He ran the state-owned enterprise for 10 years before leaving to start his own construction business in 1995. He scrapped together 100,000 yuan of his own savings and loans from family members to buy three nearly bankrupt township enterprises -- rural entrepreneurial ventures that sprung up along the coastal area during China's early days of economic reforms -- that grew into China Pacific Construction. The company has 100,000 workers on its payroll now, making it the largest privately-owned employer in China.

Mr Yan made his mark delivering his first project under budget and well ahead of deadline. In fact, he knew that China Pacific Construction Group would lose money on the project but he took the job anyway. The company was sub-contracted to pave a section of the highway encircling Nanjing. It was given 140 days. Mr Yan's team worked overtime and completed the job in 72 days.

He lost 80,000 yuan on the job. But his strategy paid off the next year when he won a bigger contract from the Nanjing government to pave another section of the same highway. He made an 8 million yuan net profit and has never looked back since.

Unlike many of China's millionaires, Mr Yan grants interviews freely. Since he was named as the second richest man in China, he has granted more than 100 media interviews.

He obligingly squeesing in the interview with The Sunday Times during a one-day business trip to Beijing.

The derring-do that prompted him to jump off buildings in his youth has served the entrepreneur well. When the Asian financial crisis slowed down China's growth in the late 1990s, the Chinese government started pumping in billions of yuan into big infrastructure projects such as highways, bridges, dams and airports, to keep the economy growing.

Mr Yan saw his chance and China Pacific Construction started bidding and winning a number of those contracts, including the Shanghai-Nanjing highway, the Shanghai-Beijing highway, the Nanjing Airport and Nanjing subway.

Another chance to score big came when the government decided to sell, merge or close down unprofitable state-owned enterprises. From 2001 to 2003, China Pacific Construction merged and acquired 31 unprofitable state-owned enterprises at the rate of nearly one every month in an effort to bulk up and expand nationwide.

Mr Yan says that in every case, the local governments approached him about buying out the bankrupt companies' orders.

At that time, few Chinese companies had China Pacific Constrution mix of capital, management and drive needed to restructure the unprofitable state-owned enterprises.

Mr Yan whose family was deemed "intellectual" during the Cultural Revolution and was sent to the countryside to work, learnt quickly to apply "capitalist" management methods. In a country which is trying to shake off the iron rice bowl mentality, he famously hired and fired three general managers of a bankrupt state-owned machinery company in five months before turning the company around.

The first general manager he bought in took care of the bottomline he laid off workers and sold off money-losing assets. He described the second biss as a "steadying influence" brought in to calm frazzled emplyees' nerves and bring the company for a "soft landing" after the radical restructuring. The third guy was an experienced manager who charted the restructed comany's direction.

Today, all 31 former state-owned enterprises have turned around and are profitable.

Given his wealth, he can more than afford to live larger than his current 170 sq m apartment in Nanjing but he is quite happy to stay where he is.

He said that every month, he hands over 80,000 yuan salary to his wife, who runs the household. His daughter is studying for a master's degree at Stanford University and his son is a college sophomore at the prestigious Nanjing University.

One thing is certain: his two children will not succeed him as company chairman. Indeed, he makes it a point not to hire family members, classmates and friends. When he took over as company chairman, his wife quit her job in the company's finance department.

He believes in keeping the business strictly professional. "A lot of talented management won't join a company if all the top management positions are held by the family."

He plans to retire from his post as Chairman in 2008 and has been reducing his stake in China Pacific Construction by rewarding his loyal staff with shares. Last year, he gave 40 percent of his shares to 250 senior managers. By the time he retires, Mr Yan will be left with just 25 percent of the firm.

He says that he will take his money and build a new business school in Shanghai to train China's next generation of entrepreneurs. "My first career was in education. I want to return to my roots."

Learn From The Masters

One trait many great investors have in common is a willingness to share their knowledge. Peter Lynch, for example, has inspired hundreds of thousands with his must-read books. Warren Buffett, one of the greatest investors ever, lays bare his knowledge in his annual shareholder letters to Berkshire Hathaway investors. And the list goes on: Ben Graham, Philip Fisher, John Neff, etc.


http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06013118.htm

Big Winners for Small Investors - By Paul Elliott

By Paul Elliott (TMF Rael)
February 10, 2006

In 1999, Warren Buffett reportedly made the uncharacteristically bold guarantee that he could earn 50% profits on a portfolio of common stocks each year -- under one condition. Even better, he would accomplish this feat using ordinary, publicly traded stocks that you or I can buy and hold ourselves.

But even though Buffett meets with investors regularly and happily entertains questions from the gallery, he was uncharacteristically hard to pin down on this one point. He left the question open to much speculation, including plenty for years here at Fool HQ.

Enter a group of students from Kansas
While we were lollygagging about the water cooler, debating what exactly was said and when, a college investment class took matters into its own hands. These students trekked across the heartland and requested a private audience with this legend.

And these brave souls stood directly across the table and demanded to know ... Is it true? Did the investing genius really make his much-disputed "50% per year" boast? And more important, does he stand by it today?

Survey says ... Bing! Yes and yes! In fact, not only did this gentleman from Nebraska confirm what many already believed, he'd first proclaimed back in 1999, he went one giant step further.

We know all about the gazillions Buffett made on consumer giants like $100 billion Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). But here's something you may not know. To earn that 50% per year -- to double your portfolio every 20.5 months -- Buffett wouldn't buy Coca-Cola or even his own company, Berkshire Hathaway. He'd buy obscure little outfits with names you've never even heard. How can I be so sure?

Simple. Remember that condition I mentioned earlier? Warren Buffett guaranteed he could earn 50% per year ... if he had less than $1 million to invest. That's because the world's greatest investor would focus on undiscovered, lightly traded small caps -- the area of the market where individual investors have an advantage over the pros.

Why Warren wishes he were you
I know, that sounds crazy. After all, the big money on Wall Street has all the advantages, right? In fact, that couldn't be further from the truth.

Think about it. Pros have way more than $1 million to put to work. They can't mess with smaller stocks -- no matter how undervalued or how great the business. Well, at least they can't without risking running up the price (before their order is filled) or getting stuck with a controlling share of the business.

That's why you see all the trading volume in mega caps. Just take a look at the five most active stocks on the Nasdaq on a recent morning (last Monday, actually).

Company
Market capitalization
Shares traded

Sirius Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI)
$7.4 billion
28 million

Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)
$125 billion
26 million

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
$58 billion
20 million

Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL)
$62 billion
19 million

Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO)
$110 billion
18 million



And the most active stock on the New York Stock Exchange on that same morning? Motorola (NYSE: MOT), with a $52 billion market cap and 18 million shares traded.

So if you've got half a billion to put to work this afternoon, you'd better buy some Intel -- and forget about the next Intel. But let's face it, those monsters don't have many more doubles left in the tank -- much less one every 20 or so months.

Here are a few more numbers to chew on. Ibbotson Associates tracks stock returns by "style" and market cap (size). You could have invested $1,000 in Ibbotson's large-cap universe back in 1927, and you'd have about $2 million. Not bad.

If you'd bought small-cap value stocks instead, you'd have $33 million. Of course, the word "value" in that last sentence is critical. If you ask me, it's the missing link between the huge profit potential of small caps and the method to the madness of the world's greatest investor.

That's a little trick I learned from Motley Fool co-founder Tom Gardner, back when I worked with him on his Motley Fool Hidden Gems newsletter service. It's why Tom and I both focus on unloved, obscure, and, most important, underpriced companies. That can be a recipe for great volatility, but the returns can be fantastic. But Warren Buffett already told you about that.


Excerpted from Paul Elliott's article at
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06021006.htm

Get Ready to Buy - By Paul Elliott

By Paul Elliott (TMF Rael)
February 6, 2006

"Over the years, small-cap stocks crush their large- and mid-cap peers."

That's how I planned to open today. By now, I'd be making my case -- dropping names like Nagel and Quigley, plus 70 years' worth of market data from Ibbotson.

But you're no dummy
And by ... now! ... my inbox would be full. "Your numbers are skewed by a few abnormal years," you'd be shouting, or "What about survivorship bias?" And you'd be right. You'd have found the fatal flaw in all historical data: The future is not the past.

So forget the big numbers
Fortunately, you don't need an Excel spreadsheet to tell you that tomorrow's big winner is an upstart today. What you need is a few clues to help you find it. And history tells us that the one stock you'll brag about is very likely ...

Run by entrepreneurial zealots with ownership stakes.
Free of convoluted relationships with investment banks.
Positioned to grow its sales and cash flow exponentially.
But most important, this company is out there right now. And because Wall Street hasn't found it (yet), you can count on some pent-up demand to fuel the fire when the sell-side herd finally does catch on.

Get in near the ground floor?
My father once told me, "Be your own boss, and you'll die rich." He had a point. After all, investors who bought Wendy's (NYSE: WEN) in Columbus and Hershey (NYSE: HSY) in Lancaster hit the jackpot. But even those lucky devils didn't fare as well founders Dave Thomas and Milton Hershey. Of course, that's how capital works.

Think about it: The nearer your grandfather got to kindly old Henry, the sweeter his investment in Ford (NYSE: F). And just imagine the possibilities if his father had been a drinking pal of J.P. Morgan. You'd be a JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) millionaire.

Sadly, most of us don't build empires, plant seed money, or ever really encounter pure genius. But thanks to the stock market, we can still get in early. We just need to be patient and pick our spots. Better still, we can take a cue from Tom Gardner's Motley Fool Hidden Gems method and seek out companies with market caps below $2 billion offering:

Solid management with big stakes.
Great, sustainable businesses.
Dominant positions in niche markets.
Sterling balance sheets.
Strong free cash flow.
Just remember those five keys
In the early '90s, they led tech investors to mavericks like Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) and AOL (now part of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)) -- and fantastic profits. Just as they led folks to Home Depot (NYSE: HD), among many others. In just the past two years, they have led Tom and his gang at Motley Fool Hidden Gems to a half a dozen stocks that have doubled in value or more.

(To be fair, I'll give you the whole story. As of Feb. 5, 2006, the stocks recommended in Hidden Gems are up on average 37.9%. That's compared with about 11.3% if you'd bought the S&P 500 instead. You can see the difference for yourself.)

For most investors, 2006 started out with a bang, but the market looks to be cooling off. I don't know about you, but I am a buyer on any weakness. Either way, I always have a wish list of small stocks on my watch list when opportunity knocks. You should, too.

If you need some help putting one together, here's a possible shortcut. You can try Tom Gardner's complete Hidden Gems service free for 30 days. Of course, there is no obligation to subscribe, and you have a whole month to decide. But you can get the full list of Tom's recommendations instantly. Click here to learn more.

This article was originally published on May 10, 2005. It has been updated.

Excerpted from Paul Elliott's article at
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06020603.htm

Whisper-Stock Party Tips - By Paul Elliott

If you own stocks, you should own small caps. That's not necessarily so with micro caps. Here's why.

By Paul Elliott (TMF Rael)
February 10, 2006

You know who you are. I've been knocking around this business for years, and everywhere I've stopped I've met you. And every time I turn up someplace new, I take one or two of you along with me.

Behold! My own personal whisper-stock-party-tip rumor mill. One day, it's Mark on the phone from Rockville. Then it's Sean from Miami or Shannon from Boston. And just when you think you've heard it all, it's the other Mark from New York. He's got to be the worst.

The greatest stocks of all?
A while back, I made the case for Wall Street's worst-kept secret. It's that small stocks tend to outperform their larger-cap peers over time -- and that smart stock investors own them. What, then, is Wall Street's best-kept secret?

It's that micro caps do even better. At least a certain type of them do. I'll back that up with some numbers in a bit. I'll even toss in a few anecdotes, but first, some fine print.

Micro caps are not for everyone. They're for people like Sean and Shannon and the Marks. They're for people who love this stuff -- who have the time to do some real digging. Or have someone do it for them.(You'll hear more about one possible solution just ahead).

There has to be a better way
No offense to my old rumor mill, but it's hard to find decent research on tiny companies. Forget Wall Street. Not even the boutique shops offer much by way of coverage. Believe me, I've looked.

That isn't to say that the rumor mill doesn't have its place. I mean, we dug up a few killers over the years. We bought ImClone (Nasdaq: IMCL) years before Icahn got on boards. Then again, we also bought Genta (Nasdaq: GNTA) for a hellish ride. (We're taking our lumps on that one today, let me tell you!)

But I guess it stands to reason that our results would be mixed. After all, our method was never particularly rigorous, and the rumor mill deals in high hopes and speculations. No wonder we've had our ups and downs.

But do small companies have to be risky?
Maybe not. After all, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) once had a market cap of less than $30 million. Yet the company made money. It was shareholder-friendly, conservatively managed, and heavily owned by its founders. But Wall Street's investment banks had little use for it.

Too bad for them. Hindsight is 20/20, and Wal-Mart is an extreme example, but it hardly seems Wal-Mart was ever a risky investment. After all, it actually paid a dividend, even when it was a small fry.

The Holy Grail, obviously, is to find companies today with the characteristics of a 1980s-era Wal-Mart. As with any small cap, look for these in any micro cap:

Solid management with significant stakes
Great, sustainable businesses
Dominant positions in niche markets
Sterling balance sheets
Strong free cash flow
Just look twice as hard. Because the smaller the company, the more important these things are. And look for micro caps that pay a dividend, like Wal-Mart did. A dividend implies a lot of good things, including that the company won't be out begging for new capital -- a great sign if ever there was one.

You didn't really have to find Wal-Mart
How about Biogen Idec (Nasdaq: BIIB) or even Schwab (NYSE: SCHW)? Both were long familiar names in very different circles, and yet both made fortunes for early investors. If you're a mall rat, you could have bought teen-themed retailer American Eagle Outfitters -- an original rumor-mill favorite -- as recently as 1997 for a 5,000% gain.

Of course, that's the beauty of getting in early. Consider Dell Computer. Had you bought Dell in 1990, you'd be up some 40,000%. But if you'd held off until January 1992, your $5,000 investment would be worth around $750,000 -- a lot of money, but downright paltry compared with the $2 million if you'd pulled the trigger just two years before.

And don't get me wrong, you could run out and buy IBM (NYSE: IBM) or Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) right now. And maybe you should, but neither can be the next big winner. With market caps in the hundred billions, what are the chances these guys can run up another 1,000% in value? Zippy.

Here's a little proof
I can't claim with any certainty that micro-cap stocks will continue to outperform over the next 20 years. Or that we can find the next big winners. I can't even promise that micro-cap value stocks will outperform. But they have in the past.

It's widely known that, since Ibbotson Associates started keeping data in 1926, small caps have thumped large caps. Well, Ibbotson also ran the numbers for micro caps, this time from 1968 to 2002. Turns out, micro-cap value stocks take the cake.

Illustration: $10,000 invested in micro-cap value stocks back in 1968 grew to nearly $1.1 million a quarter-century later. Compare that with around $950,000 for the same amount invested in small-cap value and just $180,000 for large-cap growth.

Now, how about that better way?
Micro caps aren't for everyone, but they sure are a blast. At the same time -- aside from walking the malls and scouring trade magazines -- how are you supposed to find out about these smaller companies? And with nobody following the stocks once you do, how can you stay on top of them?

Earlier, I hinted there might be a better way. Here it is. Motley Fool co-founder Tom Gardner follows small stocks for his regular readers at Motley Fool Hidden Gems. In fact, he's got a regular feature dedicated to micro caps. And it's not just Tom; the Tiny Gems discussion group is full of stock jocks turning over rocks all across the country.

In fact, you can sample the complete Hidden Gems service at no charge for 30 days. That way, you can see whether it's right for you without putting any capital at risk. Intrigued? To hear all about it, click here.

This commentary was originally published on Feb. 4, 2005. It has been updated.


Excerpted from Paul Elliott's article at
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06021005.htm

Quote of the Day

"It's better doing nothing than busy doing nothing."


I was watching the Suze Orman show and had a great laugh when they interviewed the Yankees what they know about bonds. Do you know what is a bond ?





Cheers
Niversphere.

Company Update: Tat Hong Joint Venture With KS Energy

KS Energy Announcement----------------------------------------------

• RMB 87.5 MILLION PROCUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SERVICES
OF EQUIPMENT CONTRACT FROM SKY CHINA PETROLEUM
SERVICES LTD
• JOINT VENTURE WITH TAT HONG HOLDINGS LTD



The Board of Directors of KS Energy Services Limited (“KS Energy” or the “Company”)
is pleased to announce the following:

A. PROVISION OF PROCUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SERVICES OF EQUIPMENT TO SKY CHINA PETROLEUM SERVICES LTD (“SKY PETROLEUM”)

The Company has been awarded a RMB 87.5 million procurement and management
services contract inclusive of oilfield equipment by Main Board listed Sky Petroleum.
Sky Petroleum is a PRC based petro-engineering technical services provider in the PRC oil and gas industry.

Under the agreement which is for a period of 5 years, KS Energy will provide Sky
Petroleum procurement and management services for oilfield equipment. KS Energy will set up a joint venture company with Tat Hong Holdings Ltd to provide the procurement and management services (please see details below). The joint venture is not expected to have a material effect on the net earnings per share or net tangible assets per share of the Company for the financial year ended 31 December 2005.

Mr Lim Jit Poh and Billy Lee Beng Cheng are independent directors of Sky Petroleum.
As such, they have abstained from voting in the abovementioned transaction. Save as
aforesaid, none of the directors or substantial shareholders of the Company has any
interest, direct or indirect on the abovementioned transactions.


B. JOINT VENTURE WITH TAT HONG HOLDINGS LTD (“TAT HONG”)

The Company is pleased to announce that it has signed a term sheet with Main Board
listed Tat Hong Holdings Ltd, to form a joint venture in Singapore principally to provide procurement and management services of oilfield equipment to Sky Petroleum. Tat Hong is one of the biggest suppliers of cranes and heavy equipment in the region. Tat Hong and its subsidiary Tutt Bryant Group Limited are currently listed on the Singapore and Australia stock exchanges respectively.


Each party will inject approximately S$100,000 as the issued and paid up capital of the joint venture company. The 50-50 joint venture will be represented on the board by 2 directors from each party. The operations of the Company will be funded by internal resources, shareholders’ loans and bank borrowings. Shareholders’ loans and profit distribution will be effected on an 80% (KS Energy) to 20% (Tat Hong) basis. The joint venture is not expected to have a material effect on the net earnings per share or net tangible assets per share of the Company for the financial year ended 31 December 2005.

None of the directors or substantial shareholders of the Company has any interest, direct or indirect on the abovementioned transactions.


BY ORDER OF THE BOARD
Lim Ka Bee
Company Secretary
Date: 8 February 2006

Tat Hong Holdings Announcement--------------------------------------

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE


ANNOUNCEMENT

• JOINT VENTURE WITH KS ENERGY SERVICES LIMITED
• RMB 87.5 MILLION PROCUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SERVICES OF EQUIPMENT CONTRACT FROM
SKY CHINA PETROLEUM SERVICES LTD

The Board of Directors of Tat Hong Holdings Ltd (“Tat Hong” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the following:


A. JOINT VENTURE WITH KS ENERGY SERVICES LIMITED

The Company is pleased to announce that it has signed a term sheet with Main Board listed KS Energy Services Limited (“KSES”), to form a joint venture in Singapore principally to provide procurement and management services of oilfield equipment. KSES is an energy services group catering to the oil & gas and petrochemical
industries around the world. It is a leading one-stop supply and services provider to major oil & gas companies in the region and has since November 2003 secured rig related contracts to procure and supply refurbished offshore upgraded rigs to CNOOC Limited group, Maersk Olie og Gas AS, Gulf Drilling International Limited and others.

Each party will inject approximately S$100,000 as the issued and paid up capital of the joint venture company. The 50-50 joint venture will be represented on the board by 2 directors from each party. The operations of the Company will be funded by internal resources, shareholders’ loans and bank borrowings. Shareholders’ loans and
profit distribution will be on a 80% (KS Energy) 20% (Tat Hong) basis. The joint venture is not expected to have a material effect on the net earnings per share or net tangible assets per share of the Company.


B. PROVISION OF PROCUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SERVICES OF EQUIPMENT BY THE JOINT VENTURE
TO SKY CHINA PETROLEUM SERVICES LTD (SKY PETROLEUM)

The joint venture company will principally provide procurement and management services (inclusive of oilfield equipment) worth RMB 87.5 million to Main Board listed Sky Petroleum, in relation to oilfield equipment. Sky Petroleum is a PRC based petro-engineering technical services provider in the PRC oil and gas industry. The period for the provision of the services is for 5 years.

None of the directors or substantial shareholders of the Company has any interest, direct or indirect in the abovementioned transactions


BY ORDER OF THE BOARD
Ong Tiew Siam
Executive Director/Company Secretary

Tat Hong eyes further expansion into overseas markets

Tuesday February 7, 10:17 PM


SINGAPORE : Crane company Tat Hong Holdings is reaching out into markets in China, the Middle East and Indonesia.

It is aiming to build on a strategy that has helped the company extend its presence over the last 30 some years, with offices from Australia to Vietnam.

But getting there hasn't been easy.

It had to overcome problems like assimilating foreign cultures and getting the right local people to run its network.

If there is one thing that differentiates crane company Tat Hong, it is the ability to claw a niche for itself in an industry dominated by big foreign boys.

Today, the small homegrown Singapore firm has taken the No. 1 spot in the world crawler crane business, despite having a market cap of only just S$370 million.

Tat Hong is already in 14 cities, and now wants to expand further into China, the Middle East and Indonesia.

"Market sentiment is good for the next few years and there is a lot of infrastructure projects coming out in this part of the world. So I think we can tap on to this economic growth and expand overseas more rapidly within the next few years," said Roland Ng, chief executive of Tat Hong Holdings.

About 75% of Tat Hong's turnover comes from overseas, and it wants this contribution to grow to 85% within the next two years.

The firm was founded in the 1960s by Ng Chwee Cheng, father of the current CEO, Roland Ng.

When Singapore's housing and construction market took off in the 1970s, Ng senior saw the potential in the heavy equipment business.

But instead of trying to compete with giants like Caterpillar or Komatsu, he decided to specialise in the less crowded and lower capital-intensive crane business.

And the strategy has certainly paid off.

But making the right decision to specialise and choosing the right niche to move into are not enough to ensure success.

According to Roland Ng, being able to overcome competition wherever you set up shop is also crucial.

And to do that, getting the right local staff for your overseas branches is all-important.

"It's always a problem - getting the right people to run the operation. Because sometimes, we don't understand the overseas culture," said Roland Ng.

"So we need to get the local people who understand the culture to run the show. There will always be a risk that we might get the wrong people to run the show and get into problems," he said.

Tat Hong was listed on the Australian stock exchange in 1996 and on the Singapore bourse in 2000.

- CNA /ls

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/060207/5/singapore192067.html

Book Review - The Great Stock Adventure

Just received this book in my mailbox. This is already my fifth book from Wallstraits.com, a companion to my investment adventure. This book is an easy read compared to the previous book 'The Philosophical Investor'. It is clear to its point, imaginative and colorful.

Three different characters Sophie, Old Bob and Ethan ,each with its own "investment" strategy. But ultimately, this book has several important investment morals to tell.

I am a Ethan kind of investor but occasionally still "seduced by" Sophie. Haha. A lot of suspense.

I would recommend this book to all, for starters and even "experienced" investors alike. Just because its such an easy read, busy investors like me can occasionally read through this book to realign our possibly wavering investment philosophy as we are constantly bombarded with new information.

Wallstraits own book review

Once upon a time, there was an epic adventure involving three Singaporean investors in search of The Great Stock, the ultimate investment opportunity, guided by a far-away investment guru of almost mythical stature.

The Great Stock Adventure is experienced through the eyes of four main characters: The Great Guru, an elderly icon of uncanny investment prescience and astonishing accomplishment; Ethan, our energetic young local Singaporean investment hero; Sophie, a sophiscated, elegant and highly speculative personality; and Old Bob, a kindly man with a wealth of life experience, yet lacking confidence in his own ideas.

Like all good adventure parables, our little story will leave you, the reader, with several important investing morals to ponder. Enjoy the adventure!

Trust your own view

Cheers
Niversphere

The Best Retirement Advice

By Rex Moore (TMF Orangeblood)
January 31, 2006

When it comes to saving up for retirement, you probably think you can't compete with a super-smart, hotshot doctor who pulls in a six-figure salary and has a magic investing touch. But you'd be wrong.

Let's say you graduate from college at age 22, alongside this future medical superstar. From that point on:

You enter the workforce, and she heads on to medical school.
You contribute $2,500 a year to the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (FUND: VTSMX) through your 401(k), and you earn the market's historical annual return of 10%.
Your friend enters the workforce after seven years of medical school. By virtue of her greater earnings power and stellar investing skills, she's able to contribute $3,500 each year and earn 12% annually.
How you compete
Your friend's ability to contribute more money each year and to earn 2% more than you is huge -- huge, I tell you. But not bigger than your seven-year head start. You'll both reach the $1 million mark at the retirement age of 60:

Regular scenario

Age
Savings
42
$157,506
53
$500,344
60
$1,001,119

Hotshot doctor scenario

Age
Savings
42
$113,374
53
$466,669
60
$1,066,967

The best retirement advice
Fool co-founder Tom Gardner once said, "The best time to start investing was yesterday. The next best time is today." If you start today and do nothing more than regularly add money to the boring but cheap Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund -- top holdings include ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Altria (NYSE: MO), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) -- you could have your million-dollar nest egg in 40 years. Of course, with some smart planning, you could even accelerate that.

It is never too early to start your retirement planning, and in the latest issue of Motley Fool Rule Your Retirement, editor Robert Brokamp talks with investing expert Joel Greenblatt about his market-beating techniques. There's also an explanation of how inflation can nibble away at your nest egg, and what you can do about it.


Excerpted from Rex Moore's article at
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06013116.htm

Hongguo International - Riding on the needs of modern woman .

Hongguo , is a specialised designer, manufacturer and retailer of high-quality fashion footwear headquartered in Nanjing, China. With manufacturing facilities in Nanjing and Dongguan, Hongguo shoes (under in-house brands C.Banner 千百度and E.Blan 伊伴) are available at over 500 points of sale across China’s major cities and provinces. In 2004, C.Banner was ranked third in terms of market share for the third year running, according to an annual market survey of the ladies’ leather shoes industry conducted by the National Statistics Board of China. Apart from its principal business in footwear, Hongguo also wholly owns Jiangsu Unity Corporation, a retail management company distributing fashion brands such as Ermenegildo Zegna, Hugo BOSS, MaxMara, G2000 and U2 in eastern China.

Everytime, when i bypass the Citylink to Suntec City for meetings and dinners. I can't help but notice that the shoe shop that sells ladies footwear is often crowded with masses of woman some accompanied with roaming eyed male partners. I decided to do a scuttlebutt method in this instance. I travelled around popular shopping malls in Singapore and found that woman really like their shoes and there are so many shoe selling shops around Singapore. The non surprising fact is that some shops cater only to female counterparts.

In office, I noticed that my female colleagues change their shoes to fit in their attire. Like pink or red when they are more casual, black and pointy ones when they are in more formal mood. They admitted that beautiful shoes are often the most tortuous. For the matter of fact, its so digusting if you noticed that beneath the table, they often take off their shoes. Ever noticed that? Price to pay for staying pretty. For guys like me, we just keep to the normal leather shoes. We dont keep many pairs around as one good pair already cost above $200 bucks. Not much variation either. One good example is of my own sister whom has a wide collection of shoes, often just a wear it once and that's it scenario.


All these paints a nice scenario for Hongguo.


On 08 November, Hongguo signed an 8-year exclusive license agreement for the distribution and retail of Lumberjack brand in China with an established shoe designer, 3A Antonini. The Group plans to set up 90 Lumberjack outlets in the first three years starting 1Q06. Hongguo shall also take on a 75% stake in the JV, with 3A Antonini taking up the remaining 25% stake. The JV will set up a new production line in Nanjing capable of producing 270k pairs of shoes p.a., and engage in ODM of Lumberjack ladies’ shoes for the Europe market. This would raise the Group’s total annual production capacity to c. 2.8m pairs.

Hongguo's in-house brands C.Banner 千百度 recently emerged as the second most popular lady shoewear in terms of sales marking any milestone for the company and provides further evidence that the company's strategy is working and that the management stays ambitious as ever.

2006-01-27 美丽华再创佳绩 千百度全国销量第二

近日，从国家统计局中国行业企业信息发布中心传来喜讯，2005年度美丽华企业生产经销的千百度女皮鞋荣列全国同类商品销售额第二位，这是继2002－2004年度千百度女鞋连续3年取得全国同类产品销售额第三的佳绩后，美丽华人用智慧与汗水，创造的一个新的高峰！

集团董事长、总裁陈奕熙得知此信息后，向全体美丽华员工表示了衷心的感谢和敬意，他高度评价了美丽华所取得的这一成绩，认为“这是有着决定意义的一步，有了这一步我们就有了向第一名冲刺的坚实基础１


Management is seen as open and intelligent. In 17 May 2005, Hongguo's chairman granted 13.5 million vendor shares meant to reward management and also ensure
continuity at a time of increased opportunities for outsourced manufacturing and growth in retail sales. This is seen as positive as its good recongnition to those who would "fought" along with the company. The grant of the options for vendor shares, assuming they are fully exercised, will not result in any dilution of the existing share capital base, but will reduce Mr Chen Yixi’s stake in the Company from the current 32.86% to 29.21%, if fully exercised. Under the terms of the agreement, the 10 managers can only exercise the options provided they remain in Hongguo’s employment till at least 31 December 2010. Keeping talents and recognising talents is a positive move by the management.

Hongguo group did their bit part of charity by contributing 50 thousand dollars to the needy. A company with a wide, caring heart is always welcomed.

2006-01-18 集团向南京市高淳县部分特困家庭捐赠5万元人民币

集团继去年12月份随南京市委统战部、市工商联“光彩事业高淳行”向高淳县古柏镇中心小学捐赠400册图书后，1月21日，再次响应光彩事业促进会的号召，积极参加“温暖千户特困家庭，和谐共迎新春佳节”扶贫捐赠活动，向高淳县捐赠5万元人民币，资助高淳县部分特困家庭的大、中、小学生的学费和特困农户生活费，让特困家庭和农户感受到了党的关怀和民营企业家的温暖，过一个欢乐祥和的新春佳节。


Hongguo has the capability to double its business every 5 years with a combination of organic and acquisitive growth. Its markets are intensely competitive, but it is now reaching an attractive scale of integrated manufacturing/retail operations that makes it a formidable competitor.


Today's share price of 0.335 is approximately 75% undervalued from the rough estimate of intrinsic business value.








Cheers
Niversphere

Please read the prospectus and perform your analysis before making any investment decision. The above does not constitute a recommendation to apply for this company. I will not be liable for any losses incurred by anyone who invests based solely on the above-mentioned information.

Understanding the Business

Often people always ask me whats the difference between gambling and investing and I gave up explaining to people with thick ear wax in their ears. Financial ignorance.


Never ever equate intelligent investing to smart bets. Investing blindly without personal through understanding of the business is near gambling.

That's why i always emphasize to my friends that if they ever invest in stocks, always have a clear investment philosophy to follow through.


What better way to explain than to quote the words from the The Sage Of Ohama:

I like businesses that I can understand. Let's start with that. That narrows it down by 90%. There are all types of things I don't understand, but fortunately, there is enough I do understand. You have this big wide world out there and almost every company is publicly owned. So you have all American business practically available to you. So it makes sense to go with things you can understand.

I can understand this, anyone can understand this (Buffett holds up a bottle of Coca- Cola). Since 1886, it is a simple business, but it is not an easy business-I don't want an easy business for competitors. I want a business with a moat around it. I want a very valuable castle in the middle and then I want the Duke who is in charge of that castle to be very honest and hard working and able. Then I want a moat around that castle. The moat can be various things: The moat around our auto insurance business, Geico, is low cost.

People have to buy auto insurance so everyone is going to have one auto insurance policy per car basically. I can't sell them 20, but they have to buy one. I can sell them 1. What are they going to buy it on? (based on what criteria?) They (customers) will buy based on service and cost. Most people will assume the service is identical among companies or close enough. So they will do it on cost. So I have to be a low cost producer--that is my moat. To the extent that my costs are further below the other guy, I have thrown a couple of sharks into the moat. All the time you have this wonderful castle, there are people out there who are going to attack it and try to take it away from you. I want a castle I can understand, but I want a castle with a moat around it.

30 years ago, Eastman Kodak's moat was just as wide as Coca-Cola's moat. I mean if you were going to take a picture of your six-month old baby and you want to look at that picture 20 years from now or 50 years from now. And you are never going to get a chance-you are not a professional photographer-so you can evaluate what is going to look good 20 or 50 years ago. What is in your mind about that photography company (Share of Mind) is what counts. Because they are promising you that the picture you take today is going to be terrific 20 to 50 years from now about something that is very important to you. Well, Kodak had that in spades 30 years ago, they owned that. They had what I call share of mind. Forget about share of market, share of mind. They had something-that little yellow box-that said Kodak is the best. That is priceless. They have lost some of that. They haven't lost it all.

It is not due to George Fisher. George is doing a great job, but they let that moat narrow. They let Fuji come and start narrowing the moat in various ways. They let them get into the Olympics and take away that special aspect that only Kodak was fit to photograph the Olympics. So Fuji gets there and immediately in people's minds, Fuji becomes more into parity with Kodak.

You haven't seen that with Coke; Coke's moat is wider now than it was 30 years ago. You can't see the moat day by day but every time the infrastructure that gets built in some country that isn't yet profitable for Coke that will be 20 years from now. The moat is widening a little bit. Things are, all the time, changing a little in one direction or the other. Ten years from now, you will see the difference. Our managers of the businesses we run, I have one message to them, and we want to widen the moat. We want to throw crocs, sharks and gators-I guess-into the moat to keep away competitors. That comes about through service, through quality of product, it comes about through cost, some times through patents, and/or real estate location. So that is the business I am looking for.

Now what kind of businesses am I going to find like that? Well, I am going to find them in simple products because I am not going to be able to figure what the moat is going to look like for Oracle, Lotus or Microsoft, ten years from now. Gates is the best businessman I have ever run into and they have a hell of a position, but I really don't know what that business is going to look like ten years from now. I certainly don't know what his competitors will look like ten years from now. I know what the chewing business will look like ten years from now. The Internet is not going to change how we chew gum and nothing much else is going to change how we chew gum. There will lots of new products. Is Spearmint or Juicy Fruit going to evaporate? It isn't going to happen. You give me a billion dollars and tell me to go into the chewing gum business and try to make a real dent in Wrigley's. I can't do it. That is how I think about businesses. I say to myself, give me a billion dollars and how much can I hurt the guy? Give me $10 billion dollars and how much can I hurt Coca-Cola around the world? I can't do it. Those are good businesses.

Now give me some money and tell me to hurt somebody in some other fields, and I can figure out how to do it.

So I want a simple business, easy to understand, great economics now, honest and able management, and then I can see about in a general way where they will be ten (10) years from now. If I can't see where they will be ten years from now, I don't want to buy it. Basically, I don't want to buy any stock where if they close the NYSE tomorrow for five years, I won't be happy owning it. I buy a farm and I don't get a quote on it for five years and I am happy if the farm does OK. I buy an apartment house and don't get a quote on it for five years, I am happy if the apartment house produces the returns that I expect. People buy a stock and they look at the price next morning and they decide to see if they are doing well or not doing well. It is crazy. They are buying a piece of the business. That is what Graham-the most fundamental part of what he taught me. You are not buying a stock, you are buying part ownership in a business. You will do well if the business does well, if you didn't pay a totally silly price. That is what it is all about. You ought to buy businesses you understand. Just like if you buy farms, you ought to buy farms you understand. It is not complicated.

Incidentally, by the way, in calling this Graham-Buffett, this is pure Graham. I was very fortunate. I picked up his book (The Intelligent Investor) when I was nineteen; I got interested in stocks when I was 6 or 7. I bought my first stock when I was eleven. But I was playing around with all this stuff-I had charts and volume and I was making all types of technical calculations and everything. Then I picked up a little book that said you are not just buying some little ticker symbol, that bounces around every day, you are buying part of a business. Soon as I started thinking about it that way, everything else followed. It is very simple. So we buy businesses we think we can understand. There is no one here who can't understand Coke.

If I was teaching a class at business school, on the final exam I would pass out the information on an Internet company and ask each student to value it. Anybody that gave me an answer, I'd flunk.

I don't know how to do it. But people do it all the time; it is more exciting. If you look at it like you are going to the races--that is a different thing--but if you are investing¡­. Investing is putting out money to be sure of getting more back later at an appropriate rate. And to do that you have to understand what you are doing at any time. You have to understand the business. You can understand some businesses but not all businesses.

Delaying your planning

One of the biggest allies of a good financial plan is time. The more you plan ahead, the more time you'll have to accumulate savings, the more time those savings will have to bask in the glow of compounded growth, and the more risk you can take with those savings since longer time horizons can compensate for investment volatility.

But procrastination squanders time, putting your plan, and future, at a disadvantage. Let's look at the classic example of people saving for retirement. Investors A, B, C, and D (who, it might be guessed, are quadruplets that come from a family of low imagination) each invest $5,000 a year for 10 years. The only difference is the age at which each began. Here are the hypothetical-just-for-illustration-don't-sue-me-if-this-doesn't-happen-to-you results:

Age Began Amount
Investor Investing By Age 65
A 25 $787,176
B 35 $346,615
C 45 $168,887
D 55 $83,227


*Illustration assumes 11% annual growth and does not account for taxes.
Even though each person invested the same amount of money, they have monstrously different amounts at retirement. Investor A began when she was 25 years old, and stopped when she was 35. And her nest egg dwarfs those of her siblings (which makes her both popular and unpopular at family gatherings).

A portion of the article from
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2003/commentary030611rb.htm

Freshen Up Your Day

Something to share with you, freshen up your day.

The article below is not written by me.

** For those non Singaporeans, i have included the translations for the
local terms used below
enjoy =P

41 signs to tell you're Singaporean

1. Thanks to SMS, you have an extra large thumb.

2. Tks 2 SMS, u oso dun no how 2 spel n e mor.

3. You pat MRT and bus seats to cool them before you sit down.

4. At lunch, you start discussing what to eat for dinner.

5. When speaking to foreigners, you somehow feel a need to adopt an accent. (If you're a DJ, this happens even when you're not speaking to foreigners.)

6. You won't raise your voice to protest policies, but you'll raise your fists to whack someone over Hello Kitty.

7. You're forever talking about businesses you want to set up but will probably never get around to starting.

8. You don't know ¾ of the people attending your wedding.

9 You marry for the real estate breaks.

10 You have kids for the tax advantages.

12. You move to where you want your child to go to school.

13. You feel you can't walk around naked in your own flat.

14. You force your children to take Speech & Drama classes, but pray they won't wind up in Arts later on.

15. You suddenly realise you're very interested in biotech. Before that it was e-commerce, engineering, and before that, medicine and law.

16. You think being an entrepreneur is setting up a bubble tea, Portuguese egg tart, a chestnut stall - right next to an existing bubble tea,Portuguese egg tart or chestnut shop.

17. You think people are inconsiderate when they don't leave their table immediately after eating at the food court but think you have every right to take your own sweet time with your ice kachang.

18. If you're a guy meeting other guys, you invariably trade army stories.

19. If you're a girl with other girls, you must talk about your 'stupid' guy friends who're forever trading army stories.

20. You somehow feel that food tastes better when eaten next to a longkang(drain).

21. It actually makes a difference to you being called an 'NSMan' rather than a 'Reservist'.

22. You've eaten more times at the Esplanade than you've actually seen shows there.

23. You need campaigns to tell you how to be courteous, to flush toilets,have sex,etc.

24. You feel the urge to add the suffix '-polis' to everything, viz.Biopolis, Airtropolis, Fusionopolis, Entrepolis, etc.

25. You meet in hotels a lot.

26. Your children have a rudimentary knowledge of Tagalog or Bahasa Indonesia.

27. You work at McDonald's when you're old rather than young.

28. You'll gladly spend $50,000 on a car, but will go to great lengths to save a few bucks on ERP charges or even a few cents on a parking coupon.

29. If you're pregnant, you have the magic to make people on the MRT fall asleep instantly.

30. You've started referring to foreign employees as 'talent' instead of 'expatriates'.

31. You copy down number plates of cars involved in accidents.

32. You think your boyfriend doesn't really love you unless he gives you part of his liver.

32. You pronounce the letter 'R' as 'ah-rer' and the letter 'H' as 'haytch'.

34. You believe that you can generate 'creativity' through rules and committees.

35. You 'chope' a seat by placing a packet of tissues on the chair.

36. You're very forthright with your criticisms of the Gahmen, unless
there's a chance they might actually hear you.

37. Your mother probably can't speak your 'mother tongue'.

38. You secretly find that the best part of the Speak Good English Movement is hearing the Singlish bits in their ads.

39. You think we're living in a modern, sophisticated country even when our leaders still insist on wearing white school uniforms.

40. You wish your constituency is in a walkover, otherwise it's damn 'leceh'.

41. During elections, you decide that there is no credible opposition even though you don't know the name of the opposition candidate in your constituency.




Translations
(3) MRT : Mass Rapid Transit Public Transportation Service (ie train)
(17) Ice Kachang : Local Asian Desert of sweetened crushed ice with toppings
(35) Chope: Reserve
(40) Leceh : troublesome
(21) NSMan : A term used for a guy that has fulfilled his National Service
(ie conscription) obligation
(21) Reservist : a term used for a guy that has fulfilled his National
Service training term but yet to fulfil his National Service obligation, ie
he is held in reserve in case of training/emergencies where he will be
called up to serve the country therefore Reservist



Received this from an email, sorry I can't give due credits to the author as I cant find the original author. But this is really funny.


If I were to add point 42, I would add

42. You hesitate to buy or sell a counter over just half a cent for the whole day.



Cheers
Niversphere

Tat Hong Holdings - My Singapore portfolio

Tat Hong was set up in Singapore in the 70s as a supplier of cranes and heavy equipment. Over the years, the company has grown and progressed to become one of the biggest companies in the region supplying cranes and heavy equipments for the industry. The group is principally involved in the rental and sales of cranes and the sale of spare parts for cranes. Apart from cranes, the group is also involved in the rental and sale of other ancillary heavy equipments such as evacuators, bulldozers, earth-moving equipment, pilling rigs and generators.Tat Hong has exclusive distributorship agreements for cranes and other heavy equipment (such as excavators, compaction equipment, wheel-loaders, skid-loaders, graders, etc.)
with Hitachi-Sumitomo, Mustang, Yanmar, Kawasaki, Bomag, Mitsubishi, Kato. Tat Hong is on track to achieve their 3-Year target (FY2006 – FY2008)- net profit growth averaging 25% p.a.

Over the past three decades, Tat Hong had expanded their operations to Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Indonesia, China, Japan, Vietnam and Australia, allowing them to bring their services closer and more effectively to our customers.In the annual survey conducted by UK-based publisher 'International Cranes.' Tat Hong was ranked the world's ninth largest crawler cranes company in the years 2003 and 2004. In Asia, its ranked second largest in 2003 and 2004. Tat Hong is currently number one player in the world in terms of crawler cranes, and ranked eighth in the world in terms of tonnage, said cheif executive officer Roland Ng.

It's projects have included, among others, projects for the Bugis, Yew Tee, and Marina Bay MRT stations, the Singapore-Malaysia second link, the NorthBridge Tunnel in Sydney, projects for Mass Transit Railway in Hong Kong, and Sanat Kita power plant in Philippines. Tat Hong continues to benefit from the industry's healthy long-term prospects. It is estimated that non-Japan Asia has the world's fastest growing construction industry over the long term, while infrastructure investment requirements for East Asia are expected to rise to around US$12 billion annually over the next five years.

The growth in the number of new infrastructure and oil and gas projects in the Asia Pacific region, coupled with the continuing tight supply of cranes globally, should keep demand buoyant and drive further increases in rental rates, utilization rates and the prices of both new and used equipment. Given their regional presence and available stock, Tat Hong is in a prime position to participate in the continued development of new infrastructure and oil and gas projects in the Asia Pacific region.

In Australia, the ongoing infrastructure and project growth is also expected to continue in coming years. Following our recent acquisition of Kingston Industries, Tat Hong will benefit from a larger equipment rental fleet and wider customer base. As such, we believe Australia will continue to contribute significantly to the Group's performance. Two structured mining equipment rental contracts in Indonesia are expected to turn in increased contributions to the Group's bottom line from the current financial year.

The recent listing of Tat Hong's Australian business Tutt Bryant on the Austrialian Stock Exchange has a positive effect on its operations. Post-ipo Tat Hong will still control 70 percent of Tutt Bryant. The money raised from the IPO will help Tat Hong reduce its debt ratio, free it from future obligations to fund the Australian operations and increase the chances of giving out special dividends to shareholders.Tutt Brayants’s share price performed well on its debut , closing at A$1.23 or 23.0% above its issue price, with a high volume of 4.5 million shares traded. The highest traded price for the day is A$1.25. Tutt Bryant closing price as of 13/01/2006 was AU$1.290 from its ipo price of AU$1.00.

Extracted from their announcements, financial facts and figures below.


http://www.listedcompany.com/ir/tathong/newsroom/Presentation141105.pdf











Healthy Financial Ratios with increasing ROE.



Price reached recent new highs.



12 years Group Revenue - Recovering from construction inactivity.





Quoting a recent news article .

Title : Construction sector seen picking up, firms urged to expand overseas
By : Jeana Wong, Channel NewsAsia
Date : 12 Jan 2006 1823 hrs (GMT + 8hrs)


SINGAPORE : Singapore's construction industry is cautiously optimistic about its outlook, even if the sector has just given its best showing in five years.

At an industry seminar on Thursday, industry players said there is no doubt that the sector is picking up.

But they added that local firms must tap overseas markets such as India and the Middle East for growth.

Singapore's construction sector expects to win up to S$13.5 billion worth of contracts this year.

That is about 20 percent more than last year.

It will put the industry on track for another good year, but that is still only about half of the value reached during the peak in 1997.

With the sector's contribution to national GDP stagnant at around 5 percent, industry leaders are urging local players to expand overseas.

William Tan, Business Development Director, Building and Construction Authority, said, "Although our local market (has) so-called recovered slightly, it's still far away from our peak year of say, 1997, where we saw $24 billion type of value...It is important for our firms to venture overseas so that they can supplement the limited domestic market."

And they see the need for Singapore companies to hurry.

Mr Tan said, "We're already late in the Middle Eastern market. However, there are countries that are also playing catch-up in the Middle East like Qatar and Abu-Dhabi. So timing wise in that aspect, it'll be just nice. And our firms of course have to work harder and to catch up and make our presence felt by the people there."

Industry players say local firms can play to Singapore's proven track record in township planning, environmental technologies and mechanical and electrical services.

The Building and Construction Authority highlighted India as one potential market.

It says there is growing demand in India's middle class for better housing and infrastructure, and that recent policy changes there have created a ready mortgage market.

Koh Lin Ji, International Operations Director, Building and Construction Authority, said, "Interest (rates) have fallen to about 9-11 percent and the other reason is that government (is) encouraging home ownership. For houses smaller than 1,500 square feet, the government actually provide rebates on interest paid on mortgage...For the Indian market, they have very large contractors and a lot of smaller contractors so they have a gap. And this gap will be filled up by our large contractor firms."

Other markets seen as key to the industry include China and Southeast Asia. - CNA/ms

Tighter demand-supply imbalance will further raise prices
and crane rental rates of Tat Hong’s fleet of cranes,
continuing to fuel a positive operating environment for Tat
Hong. Numerous infrastructure projects and tight supply of
cranes will continue to push up

• Utilisation rates
• Rental rates
• Prices of both new and used equipment


Upcoming major infrastructure projects in Singapore:

- Two IR projects (approx. S$5 billion)
- Circle Line (approx. S$6.7 billion)
- Sports Hub (approx. S$650 million)
- New Finance Center

• Spending on construction projects in Australia estimated at
US$168.4 billion for 2006 - 2008 (Source: Global Insight Inc.)
• Spending on construction projects in Thailand estimated to be
US$16b – US$18b over next 5 years, with average 5.8% GDP
growth over next 3 years (Source: Asian Development Outlook,
2005)
• Average 8.5% GDP growth for Vietnam over next 3 years, with
estimated S$13.3 billion investment in infrastructure projects in
2005 alone (Source: BCI Asia)


Assuming that Tat Hong achieves 25% growth with a 5% discount (US Treasury rates) and zero terminal value. I used last years figures and not prediction forecast.

Using DCF discount model.



Today's share price of 0.705 is approximately 56% undervalued from the rough estimate of intrinsic business value.

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Please read the prospectus and perform your analysis before making any investment decision. The above does not constitute a recommendation to apply for this company. I will not be liable for any losses incurred by anyone who invests based solely on the above-mentioned information.

Noble Group - My First Blue Chip

As you all might already have known , Noble Group is a STI component that makes the STI index. It's a blue blue chip. Noble Group is the first blue chip that makes it into my holding portfolio.

Noble Group is a market leader in managing the global supply chain of agricutural, industrial and energy products. With a network of over 70 offices in 35 countries serving more than 3500 customers. Noble Group adds value at every link in the supply chain. With 2004 revenue of US$8.6 billion.

In 2005, Noble Group was assigned ratings from Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's Ratings Agency and joined the benchmark Straits Times Index and MSCI Index in Singapore. During this period, the Group was also recognized by Hewitt Associates as one of Hong Kong’s Best Employers, The Asset for its excellence in Corporate Governance while topping the annual Forbes 2000 list of best stock performers over the past five years. In 2004, the Group’s Board of Directors was awarded the Listed Company (Main Board) Board Award from The Hong Kong Institute of Directors and ranked first on the Billion-dollar club of the Singapore Stock Exchange for Total Shareholder Returns over a 3 and 5 year period.

Let me show you my buy decision making for Noble Group.

On 8th September 2005,
Noble group subsidiary Noble Energy expanded into the Global Carbon Market. Lead by a experienced team.
On 1 January 2005, the EU established a new carbon market through the implementation of the EU ETS. The EU ETS resulted in approximately 7,300 companies being exposed to greenhouse gas emission compliance requirements. Through legislation enacted by the local governments of the 25 EU member states, the affected companies have imposed upon them tight carbon emission restrictions. The first compliance period under the EU ETS is 2005-07 which precedes the first Kyoto Protocol compliance period which starts in 2008. Under the EU ETS, many companies, and especially those in the power industry, received substantial under-allocations of emission allowances and will have to obtain credits from the market to meet their compliance requirements. Non-compliance with EU ETS requirements has significant adverse financial consequences as penalties for non-compliance in the first EU ETS compliance period are € 40 per tonne of excess emissions plus the requirement that the entity still obtain the necessary emission credits (currently market priced at approximately € 20 per tonne) to be compliant. The second emissions compliance phase in the EU runs from 2008-12 (parallel with the first Kyoto Protocol compliance period) and will bring even tighter emission allocations and higher penalties (€ 100 per tonne) for non-compliance.
The ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by Russia and its coming into effect on 16 February 2005 has created from 2008 onwards a worldwide emissions compliance market with many interesting opportunities. For example, countries such as Japan and Canada are expected to be “short” in
respect of emission rights and accordingly such market players will have to source additional credits from the world market.
The existing combination of Noble’s coal and raw material portfolio, its excellent global contacts and positioning in the fast growing Asian markets, in conjunction with the new carbon credit team’s skills and market access, will allow the Group to pursue many promising emission market opportunities in the future.
The new carbon activities of Noble will operate from its Dublin subsidiary, Noble Carbon Credits Ltd. and supported by two offices in Frankfurt and Amsterdam. Leveraging off its current businesses and industry contacts, Noble plans to quickly expand this business worldwide
and sees itself as the first player with a global sourcing, marketing and portfolio management approach to this new market.
The activities of the new carbon team will initially focus on the global sourcing of CERs from Kyoto’s “Clean Development Mechanism” projects in developing countries and the sourcing of EU Allowances. Subsequently, Noble plans to become directly involved, through investment and otherwise, with greenhouse gas abatement projects.

Noble Energy expands into India

Noble Group, has hired Mr Ajay Mishra to expand its Carbon business in India and the Asia Pacific Region. Mr Mishra was most recently with TATA International. Mr Mishra has broad experience in the full range of carbon products (Coking Coal, Coke, Anthracite and PCI). Mr Mishra will be joined by other experienced personnel in forming the new Kolkatta operation of Noble Energy. This team will allow Noble Energy to capture geographic and product group synergies with the formation of this new office.
"Ajay and the team will be key in expanding Noble Energy role within the carbon market in India. It is a very exciting time in the Indian steel market and to be supported by the most experience team in the market place allows us a solid base to expand business going forward. This team will also support Noble Group’s other strategic relationships in India” said Mr William Randall, Director, Noble Energy Inc.

Quoting an article from BusinessWeek.
In Asia, A Hot Market For Carbon; The Market For Carbon Credits Is Cutting Pollution
In Developing Countries

BusinessWeek
19 December 2005

by Frederik Balfour

On the outskirts of Bangkok, generators fueled by methane from swine manure make electricity. In China's Inner Mongolia, wind farms are sprouting up along the breezy steppes. In India's Andhra Pradesh state, villagers power their tractors with a cleaner-burning diesel substitute pressed from seeds of the mighty honge tree.

What do these far-flung projects have in common? They're all the direct result of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, a sprawling global initiative
to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases linked to global warming. The U.S. and a handful of other nations spurned this treaty, in part because it exempted emerging nations from making their own cuts. But the innovative financial systems that Kyoto inspired have made it relatively easy for developing countries to hop on board.

Under the Kyoto treaty, developed countries are required to cut emissions by an average of 6% from 1990 levels by 2012. Each
country is permitted to emit a certain number of tons annually of carbon dioxide or its equivalent. Governments then issue emission "allowances'' to polluters within their borders, and these can be bought and sold by companies worldwide.

Through this carbon trading system, big polluters in developed countries can pay companies in developing nations to cut emissions in their stead. Since many factories in developing countries use dirty, inefficient processes, it's often cheaper to clean them up than to replace the more modern equipment used in wealthy nations.

The system is helping foster green investments in countries that are home to some of the world's biggest polluters. In August, a Japanese consortium led by engineering outfit JGC Corp. and Marubeni Corp. joined up with a chemical maker in China's Zhejiang Province to recover gases released in making refrigerants. The deal will result in a reduction of the equivalent of 40 million tons of
CO2 -- creating credits worth about $200 million.

Sumitomo Corp. and Rabo Bank of the Netherlands have a similar contract with Gujarat Fluorochemicals in India for 3 million tons of carbon credits. And Paris-based chemical maker Rhodia is cutting nitrous oxide emissions at its plants in South Korea and Brazil.

Rhodia will likely sell those credits, equivalent to as much as 13 million tons of CO2.

Worldwide, developing countries are promising sweeping action, from cleaning up concrete plants, to sowing new forests that absorb carbon dioxide, to harnessing methane from landfills to generate power. So far, 39 projects have been registered with the U.N., and hundreds more are in the pipeline. Ultimately, the scheme could net as much as $12.5 billion for developing countries by 2012, the World Bank says. "There is a lot of appetite for these credits," says Edu Hassing, a project specialist with the Asian Development Bank in Manila.

Since the Kyoto accord took effect on Feb. 16, the market for emission allowances has soared. Most of the action is on the Amsterdam-based European Climate Exchange, or ECX. In the exchange's first month, 1 million tons of CO2 credits were traded. Next year, it's expected to be 700 million tons -- roughly 2 million tons a day -- and volume is expected to grow to some 4.8 billion tons in 2008. "It's a large baby for its age,'' says Sara Stahl, an ECX economist. The baby is getting richer, too.

Since the beginning of the year, prices have more than doubled, to $26 per ton of carbon dioxide.

So far, credit purchases from developing countries are relatively rare, and more often than not they're funded by public institutions
rather than private companies. For example, several European governments have pledged to buy up to $1.1 billion worth of credits through the World Bank, which is acting as matchmaker for companies in the developing world that want help funding cleanup efforts.

Recent examples include wind turbines with capacity of 26 megawatts in a remote part of the Philippines and a project to capture and harness methane gas released from coal mining in China's Shanxi Province that will cut emissions by 4 million tons annually. But as 2012 approaches and companies in the West realize it's cheaper to buy credits than to clean up at home, purchases of credits from developing countries are expected to soar.

There's little doubt that India and China will be big sources of credits. Both are industrializing at a breakneck pace with little regard for the environmental consequences, so there's no shortage of areas where pollution can be reined in. India has already negotiated dozens of carbon credit sales in projects ranging from hydro stations to harnessing methane gas released by decomposing garbage.

China, on the other hand, has been a relative laggard, with just three such deals so far. But many others are in the works. "China has
a huge potential to become one of the largest markets'' for pollution credits, says Kishan Khoday, team leader for energy and the environment at the U.N. Development Program in Beijing.

Some projects are clear winners. Gases released from making refrigerants, for instance, have 11,700 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide. So capturing even small amounts can add up to huge numbers of carbon credits. Methane, meanwhile, does 21 times the damage of pure carbon dioxide, and it's a fuel in its own right, so harnessing it can offer a big payoff. Such projects are rarely undertaken without carbon trading, but with it they can be highly profitable, offering returns of as much as 30% per year, says Zhao Jianping, an energy specialist at the World Bank.

Other potential projects, though, will be harder to pull off financially. For example, in China it costs about 6.2 cents to produce a
kilowatt-hour of electricity using wind power, compared with 3.7 cents for coal. Current prices for carbon credits translate into a subsidy of roughly 0.6 cents per kilowatt hour, though funding initiatives planned by Beijing may make wind power more attractive.

How valuable will carbon credits become? Currently, credits cost up to 70% less than allowances because if a project falls through
and the developing-country partner doesn't clean up its act, the company that bought the credits is held responsible. "We must do
a hell of a lot of due diligence,'' says Thorsten Ansorg, director of Noble Carbon Credits Ltd., a subsidiary of Hong Kong trading firm Noble Group that has bought millions of tons of credits from developing countries. "We have no desire to buy something that never materializes.'' But as the market gets more efficient at separating smart projects from wishful thinking -- and as companies in the West struggle to meet their Kyoto targets -- prices are likely to rise. "As the deadline gets near,'' says Andres Liebenthal, an environment specialist at the World Bank in Beijing, "there is going to be a scramble'' for credits.

Clean & Green
Carbon credits are helping developing countries clean up their industry

COUNTRY PROJECT VALUE CARBON
(MILLIONS CREDITS OF (MILLIONS DOLLARS) OF TONS)

China Generating power using methane recovered from coal mining $17 4

India Recovery of gases released in making refrigerants $15* 3

Indonesia Capture of pollutants from cement production $11 2*

Guatemala 43-megawatt hydro plant to replace coal facility $5 2

Philippines 25-megawatt wind farm to generate clean electricity
$2.4 0.6

* BusinessWeek estimate Data: World Bank


Nuclear energy

“Noble seems well-positioned to prosper from Chinese growth,” said BusinessWeek. “With Beijing planning to build 30-plus nuclear reactors by 2020 to meet the country’s energy needs, Elman wants to get into the business of importing, transporting, and processing uranium for China.” The magazine also took note of Noble’s plans to participate in the global market for carbon credits, which the company sees as an emerging lucrative business as a result of emission-control laws.

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Please read the prospectus and perform your analysis before making any investment decision. The above does not constitute a recommendation to apply for this company. I will not be liable for any losses incurred by anyone who invests based solely on the above-mentioned information.

Indian Wisdom

' To free oneself of knowledge is to die, thus one lives. '
~ Krishnamurti

'Like the silkworm you have built a cocoon around yourself. Who will save you ?
Burst your cocoon and come out as the beautiful butterfly, as the free soul.'
~ Swami Vivekanada

'Man falls from the pursuit of the ideal of plain living and high thinking the moment he wants to multiply his daily wants.
Man's happiness really lies in contentment.'
~ Mahatma Gandhi

'Fear is one of the greatest problems in life. A mind that is caught in fear lives in confusion, in conflict, and therefore must be violent, distorted and aggressive.'
~ Krishnamurti

'Very few people in this world can reason normally, there is a terrible tendency to accept all that is said, all that is read, and to accept it without question. Only he who is really to question, to think for himself, will find the truth! To understand the currents of a river, he who wishes to know the truth must enter the water.'
~ Nisargadatta